A catastrophic flooding struck the city of Derna in Libya when Storm Daniel, hit in September 2023. According to Libyan authorities, this disaster claimed the lives of approximately four thousand individuals, with thousands more reported as missing, raising the possibility that the total death toll could potentially reach twenty thousand, making it the deadliest flood in 50 years. This calamity coincides with the centenary of the most extensive natural disaster caused by a storm in the Arabian Gulf region in 1923, called the “Year of Drowning” (Sanat Al Taba’a in arabic).
On early October 1924, a major storm struck the eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, causing the deaths of thousands of inhabitants. The number of people who died in one hour was between 4,000 and 8,000. Some of those who experienced it described it as a “devastating hurricane,” it was known locally in the eastern coast region of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the southern Emirates with the “Sanat Al Taba’a,” which in Gulf dialects means the year of flooding or drowning. Historians reported that the storm destroyed nearly 80% of the fishing and trading boats at sea at the time of the storm and also caused widespread destruction and devastation to homes and properties in coastal areas.
To understand the regional risks associated with these climatic extremes, Muwatin recently interviewed Dr. Essam Heggy, a Research Scientist with numerous publications on climate and water studies in arid regions at the University of Southern California and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The interview took place in light of his recent publication of two studies concerning the impact of climate change on the eastern Arabian Peninsula. During the interview, Dr. Heggy delved into several key topics, including the historical context of the “Sanat Al Taba’a,” the influence of climate change on the social and economic aspects of Gulf countries, and an evaluation of the regional initiatives to mitigate climate change.
What happened in 1923, during "The Year of Drowning", and how does it resemble storm Daniel, which struck the Libyan city of Derna in 2023?
“’The Year of Drowning’ was a storm very similar to the one in the Libyan city of Derna, and it led to the deaths of thousands of the Gulf inhabitants. A severe, rainy storm struck the region of Oman, originating from the Indian Ocean at the regional summer’s end. Typically, these cyclonic storms tend to dissipate along the northern coasts of Oman. However, this year, these storms penetrated deeper into the Gulf water, causing a catastrophe reminiscent of the events in Derna, and it became known as ‘The Year of Drowning’ in Gulf culture.”
Inhabitants in the Gulf region who have followed the catastrophic developments in Derna must be aware that this natural disaster is neither novel nor distant from their own experiences. The Gulf nations faced similar challenges in the past and remain susceptible to such occurrences in the future. Today, we know little about these natural hazards in the Gulf; hence, It’s imperative to delve into the region’s climatic history to glean valuable insights to mitigate forthcoming risks. Nature has not ceased, nor will it cease, to manifest these phenomena; the longer these risks take to occur, the deadliest they become as our readiness. and societal perceptions of their occurrence become disproportionate.
Is there a connection between oil and gas extraction and the regional impacts of the climate?
The Arabian Gulf is a significant global energy hub that exports approximately 40% of the world’s total oil and gas. This large energy production has brought economic prosperity, but it has also introduced growing environmental risks, particularly impacting the coasts of the eastern Arabian Peninsula.
In our research, we discovered that large-scale oil extraction from the Gulf’s islands results inland subsidence, elevating the threats posed by rising sea levels along the coasts of these islands. This subsidence contributes to the gradual disappearance of these islands, a phenomenon observed across the region. Moreover, tankers increased traffic in the Gulf’s waters, further exacerbate these challenges by accelerating coastal erosion. In some oil extraction operations, some islands sink by a few centimeters each year, and it’s worth noting that most of them are already at or near sea level, which means that such subsidence will have imminent impacts.
The significance of these seemingly uninhabited islands, from which oil is extracted, should not be underestimated. Neglecting their protection leaves them susceptible to climate changes that may ultimately result in their disappearance. However, the consequences of their disappearance are far-reaching, particularly for determining maritime borders in the Gulf. These borders are often defined from the outermost dependent island. In the future, this could lead to disputes and calls for border redefinition by the concerned states, which, in turn, might have implications for economic interests in the Gulf region, as our ongoing studies suggest.
In another study, we uncovered a significant and escalating threat posed by oil tanker accidents to the region’s water desalination plants and energy export ports. Our research indicates that the rise in oil tanker traffic, coupled with shifts in Gulf water currents driven by climatic factors, amplifies the likelihood of substantial oil tanker mishaps. With roughly 14,000 oil tankers traversing Gulf waters annually and changes in wind patterns and speed resulting from climatic changes, means that oil spills impacts can extend in surface and become more challenging to contain.
Is it accurate to claim that the consequences of climate change will only become evident after decades or centuries, as some suggest?
No, this is a common misunderstanding. The climate change impacts that some expect to emerge over the course of decades or centuries are already observable today in our region. We witness these changes firsthand due to the rapid degradation in our environmental conditions and the way our societies produce and consume energy and construct cities in manners that often disregard environmental standards and hydroclimatic forecasts. This is the most compelling evidence: We’ve seen it in the Marrakesh–Safi earthquake (also called Oukaïmedene earthquake) in Morocco and the devastating impact of Storm Daniel in eastern Libya, which resulted in extensive destruction in the city of Derna. Many of these losses occurred in regions where experts had consistently warned against construction, yet these warnings went unheeded.”
What signs of climate change are evident in the Gulf region, and what strategies can be employed to address them?
One of the most prevalent indications of climate change in the Gulf countries is the increased frequency of torrents, floods, storms, and rapid sea-level rise. When these events occur, concerns about infrastructure resilience emerge, and some may think that holding officials accountable for negligence is the solution. However, in most cases, the root of the problem lies in the region’s lack of understanding and awareness about climate change and its implication on increasing extreme hydroclimatic events beyond the frequency and magnitude retrieved in historical records.
It’s not necessarily the infrastructure that causes certain cities to experience sinking. Other factors come into play, such as the depth of groundwater, prolonged periods of drought before flooding, and the improper disposal of waste into flood-prone areas without proper maintenance of waterways. Often, there are warning signs of these disasters, but they tend to be neglected and underestimated due to a lack of public awareness and scientific media coverage addressing these issues.
Climate change is a shared issue that involves the collective responsibility of both governments and their citizens. Currently, organizations dedicated to studying climate change in the Arab world tend to focus primarily on the implementation of global climate change policies and recommendations derived from international conferences. These recommendations often center on the most basic objectives such as reducing per capita carbon dioxide emissions and minimizing industrial waste but rarely addresses the specifics of arid areas and their climatic and environomental complexities.
There is a gap in effectively studying the unique characteristics of climate change within our region itself. The lack of up-to-date monitoring networks, absence of computing resources for advanced modelling efforts and the low funding for research, are all indicatives that climate change studies are not a priority for the region. It is mistakenly believed that the responsibility for addressing climate change primarily rests with Western nations, and that additional regional research is unnecessary. These beliefs are among the factors behind the catastrophic impacts of each natural hazard in our region.
What are the reasons for our concerns about the impacts of climate change?
The impacts of climate change extend beyond minor fluctuations in personal thermal comfort, such as feeling slightly hotter or colder in one season compared to the previous year. In reality, climate change is rapidly altering the entire regional environmental and climatic systems at an unprecedented pace in our planet’s history.
There is a common misconception in the Arab world that climate change merely involves a one or two-degree increase in the local temperature, leading to a sense of indifference among Arab citizens where we mostly live in hot climates. It may appear as if the temperature rises from, for instance, 27 degrees Celsius one day to 29 degrees the next, and daily life continues as usual. However, the core issue lies not in these minor temperature fluctuations but in the average global temperature increasing by just one or two degrees.
To put it in perspective, imagine the planet as a living organism, much like the human body, with a natural temperature of 37.5 degrees Celsius. When its temperature increases by one and a half degrees, reaching 39 degrees, it is accompanied by symptoms like fatigue, headaches, and other adverse effects. The planet operates kind of similarly to the human body; a 1.5-degree temperature increase triggers a cascade of consequences, causing the climate system to become unpredictable and leading to severe disruptions. Seasons partialy lose their predictability and characteristics. Just as the human body is affected when its temperature deviates from the norm, the planet undergoes significant and disruptive changes when it rises by the same magnitude.
He elucidates that one of the most significant consequences of climate change is the rise in sea levels, which directly threatens coastal cities and many urban communities in the Gulf region. This threat is particularly pronounced in the eastern areas of the Arabian Peninsula, encompassing low-lying regions extending from Kuwait to Ras Al Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates, passing through Bahrain and Qatar.
Even a modest increase in sea levels has a pronounced impact on coastal erosion, exacerbating the effects of climate-related events such as hurricanes and storms. These events result in the inundation of larger quantities of seawater onto land, thereby increasing the destructive potential of such phenomena on vital infrastructure, as shown in one of our studies.
Additionally, climate change can increase the severity of sandstorms and desertification, driven by groundwater depletion and changes in soil moisture. In the eastern Gulf regions, the groundwater is relatively shallow, just a few meters below the surface. This groundwater contributes to ground moisture, which helps prevent wind-driven dust from scattering over large distances. When such dust enters residential areas, it poses health risks and can cause damage to critical infrastructure, including solar power plants, among others.
In what ways does raising awareness about climate-related concerns aid in mitigating potential harm?
The consequences of climate change often receive insufficient attention from the average person due to the current tense geopolitical and economic contexts. The public media do not adequately emphasize the link between climate and society and economy, and their inclusion in school curricula often lacks effectiveness in shaping public awareness. Even when climate change is discussed, the focus tends to be on changes occurring in other regions, such as Arctic ice melting or increased wildfires in Europe, but the regional impacts tend to be underrepresented. This can create a false perception that these changes only impact distant areas, leaving us immune from the consequences.
Creating awareness is important because it is crucial in reducing potential losses resulting from climate change extremes. For instance, in the event of a hurricane or flood, there should be pre-established and evacuation plans for affected areas, and citizens need to receive periodic instructions on these plans. People should not be left to improvise when disasters strike; this is a responsibility that competent authorities must fulfill.
On the other hand, citizens must follow these instructions as it is vital to safeguard their lives. Presently, if residents are asked to evacuate a part of a city due to the risk of a natural disaster, many might refuse to leave their homes because they are unaware of the devastation that might occur. This lack of awareness often leads people not to take the warnings seriously.
How did climate change play a role in shaping the landscape of the eastern Arabian Peninsula?
Climate change has played a significant role in shaping the collective identity of the Gulf states over the centuries, as reported in one of our recent publications. The maps of several regions, especially in the eastern Arabian Peninsula, have been altered due to fluctuations in sea levels over the years.
And Between 1400 and 1800 AD, much of the eastern Arabian Peninsula shorelines consisted of shallow waters impassable for ships, so accurate maps were not created for these areas during that period. The fluctuation in sea levels over the thousands of years, resulted in this coastline being inconsistently reported in maps compared for instance to the coast of Iran from the other side of the same water body.
This inconsistency is attributed to climate change, as the above-mentioned period corresponds to what is known as the “Little Ice Age.” During this time, the Arctic and Antarctic regions absorbed some of the ocean water, resulting in the formation of shallow areas around the globe, notably in the gulf. With the conclusion of the Little Ice Age, the water levels returned to their previous levels in the oceans, leading to an increase in the proportion of water in these shallow areas forming the current maps in the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula.
Can Gulf countries be subject to climate-induced migration in the future?
We do not know; while efforts are being made to tackle these challenges, they are often disproportionate to the magnitude of the risks. If climate change imapcts are not assessed and mitigated properly, parts of the future generations could be at risks of facing the prospect of climatic migration. This is because coastal areas might become more susceptible to infrastructure deterioration by corrosion in a rate faster than the anticipated one, primarily due to the increasing impacts of sea storms, beach erosion, and subsidences.
Is undertaking large-scale afforestation projects in the Gulf Desert region feasible?
The effectiveness of afforestation initiatives in desert areas varies significantly from region to region. For instance, Morocco has successfully combated desertification with a tree belt, and afforestation in some parts in the Nile Basin has effectively prevented the movement of sand dunes. These initiatives are successful because they revive an existing green belt, and there are water resources to sustain it.
However, transforming a dry desert into lush green areas is not an accomplishment in itself. It requires a substantial amount of water, which may compromise the area’s limited irrigation resources for agriculture. Converting the Arabian Desert into an environment reminiscent of the English countryside does not necessarily imply that it will be more effective in combatting climate change or providing a sustainable living environment for its inhabitants. People can live in the desert in a sustainable manner, as the Gulf’s communities have demonstrated throughout history. The most beneficial approach is to educate citizens about the advantages, challenges, and development opportunities within their desert environment in the context of climate change. This path has been fundamental in shaping the Gulf countries’ civilizations for millennia and is essential for ensuring the region’s longevity for centuries to come. Understanding and adapting to changes, rather than attempting to halt them, is key to thriving in highly arid environments such as the Arabian Peninsula.
